A Changing Environment

Over the course of 2022 our message to investors has been simple. Markets are in a period of transition and with transition comes some pain. The rapid shift from record-low interest rates and liquidity-fueled markets to one of higher interest rates and central banks shrinking their balance sheets has impacted markets. This has been coupled with the ongoing effects of COVID on economies, notably China and the unexpected conflict in Ukraine with both events contributing to rising inflation which has been the topic for all of 2022.

What can we expect from markets in 2023.

Our research suggests that we should hit peak inflation in 2023. Central banks around the globe have been aggressively raising rates to curb inflation. In Australia, the December CPI figure hit 7.8% with the cash rate target reaching 3.10% up from 0.10% in December 2022. The cash rate has since gone up to 3.6% in March 2023. Cyclical indicators have been broadly trending down and we are yet to see the full impact of rate rises on households. We believe that demand will show more material signs of slowing in the second and third quarter of 2023 which should see inflation stabilise.

Is a mild recession a possibility?

The inverted yield curve is suggesting that a recession is on the cards. Historically, recessions have occurred 12 to 18 months after the yield curve has inverted. While the likelihood of a recession is elevated, the relatively strong labour market is expected to reduce the risk of a deep prolonged recession. We do however expect segments of the economy to be hit harder than others, such as the construction industry which has already experienced a downturn following rises in interest rates. Conversely Australia’s exposure to materials and the expected reopening of China from strict COVID lockdowns is expected to benefit things such as iron ore exports.

Company earnings to slow second half of 2023.

We are yet to see the full impact on demand on the back of interest rate rises. While the savings ratio has been declining as households increasingly dip into their savings, households are still spending with travel spending being the big winner. However, our expectation is that we will observe a slowdown in demand in the second half of the year as many household budgets get a jump in their mortgage repayments as their fixed rate loans roll-off and they move towards the higher variable rate. This should see a slowdown in discretionary spending which should show up in company earnings later in the year.

Range trading market.

Investment markets have started 2023 on a positive note. Some of the acute issues that adversely impacted markets in 2022 have subsided. Energy prices, which rose sharply following the Russian invasion of Ukraine have fallen with European gas prices falling by over 27% in January alone. Furthermore, the consumer is still buoyant despite higher interest rates. As 2023 progresses and the impact of rising rates makes its way through the economy and company earnings come under increased pressure, we may see the market pull back. Net-net, it is plausible that 2023 may be a relatively flat market characterised by spikes in volatility both to the upside and the downside.

What does this all mean for you.

It is now more important than ever before to have a structured financial plan in place to ensure that you understand these changes and most importantly not panic throughout this short-term noise. As your financial advisers, we will work with you to develop and maintain a strategic plan that is adaptable to your needs as you go through your various life stages. We will monitor, re-balance and strategically modify your investment portfolios to ensure you stay on track.

We are aware that investment markets change and things happen outside your control. As your situation changes overtime and life events occur, we will be able to review the strategies in place and provide further advice at the time that could assist you in maximising your wealth, making sure that your strategies remain relevant at all times.

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Why life's big milestones are a reason to check your life insurances

By Curo Financial Services • 21 Mar, 2024

Traditionally, life’s big milestones were often summed up as getting married, buying a house, having a baby and later settling into retirement. And while all of these are still momentous and memorable life moments, today there are several other modern milestones to add to that list. These could be launching your own side hustle, investing in a property with a friend, choosing to have a child on your own, or deciding to travel in a campervan. Aside from all these moments being a cause for celebration, these milestones also mark an important point in your life to reconsider the security you have in place to not only protect yourself and everything you’ve worked towards but also the ones you love. Considering Life Insurances Big changes in your life are a time to take stock of the things you’ve achieved, your future goals and what’s important to you. And more often than not, life’s big milestones come with added financial responsibility. For this reason, it’s important to consider how you would continue to meet these responsibilities if something were to happen to you. Pooling money with family or friends to buy property can be a great way to break into the property market, however, it comes with its own unique considerations. In particular, having a plan for how you will manage and share the financial responsibility which extends to how you would cover both your shares of the mortgage if something were to happen to either of you. Life Insurance, Critical Illness Insurance and Total and Permanent Disability Insurance (TPD), are all ways to help protect yourself and people that are important to you, helping ensure that if you passed away or could never return to gainful employment, neither your friends or your family would be left to cover the cost of your financial commitment. Similarly, if you were diagnosed with a Critical Illness or experience a traumatic event that left you totally and permanently disabled, you would have lump sum payment to help offer you financial security and assist with ongoing expenses, or debts. Considering Income Protection While big life achievements are generally a result of considerable planning and preparation, you can’t always predict what will happen in life. This means that if you’re considering launching your own venture as your next big milestone, it can be helpful to have protections in place that can help prevent your goals from being railroaded in the event of an illness or accident. Often, increasing earning power is a motivator to launch a business, so it may be worthwhile considering how you would maintain this financial security if something were to happen to you. Income Protection can give you an alternative source of income if you’re temporarily unable to work due to an illness or injury that's left you totally or partially disabled. Whether you’ve launched a solo side hustle or are working with a small team, it can help you stay on top of personal living expenses, medical costs and business expenses, leaving you to focus on recovering. Every Australian is different and has their own unique ambitions, goals and milestones. If you’d like help reviewing your personal financial situation, please reach out. Any advice is general in nature only and has been prepared without considering your needs, objectives or financial situation. Before acting on it you should consider its appropriateness for you, having regard to those factors.

Reserve Bank of Australia Update - March 2024

By Lipins Partners • 19 Mar, 2024

The March Board meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) concluded with a decision to maintain the official cash rate at 4.35%, following a thorough review of recent economic indicators. The official statement for this decision is available on the RBA's website .

Tax planning helps you do more with your money

By Lipins Partners • 05 Mar, 2024

Tax planning is a strategic approach to managing your business’ financial affairs, with the aim of legally minimising your tax liability. In other words, you plan ahead to make sure you pay the taxes you should be paying, but not a penny more. Working with your tax adviser, you can look for deductions, credits, exemptions and tax-saving strategies that will help to optimise your company’s overall tax position. How does tax planning affect your business? The primary goal of tax planning is to reduce the amount of taxes your business owes. But it’s also about making sure you stay compliant with all the tax laws and regulations applicable to your business. But what are the main advantages? Let’s take a look at five of the big benefits of careful, strategic tax planning. By planning your tax across the year, you can: Maximise your profits – strategic tax planning helps your company find the best available tax incentives, deductions and credits. This reduces your overall tax liability, cuts your annual tax costs and increases your overall profitability as a business. Boost your cashflow – tax planning is a great way to open up more liquid cash and achieve a better cashflow position for the business. When you cut down the company’s tax payments, that frees up cash and helps you achieve a positive cashflow position. Stay compliant and mitigate your risk – being proactive with your tax planning keeps the company compliant with the relevant tax laws and regulations. It’s a sensible way to tick the compliance boxes and reduce the risk of costly penalties and legal issues. Drive your strategic growth – smart use of tax planning helps you reduce your tax costs and reassign those funds to your strategic business goals. It’s a golden opportunity to invest in areas that promote long-term growth and competitiveness. Give your business a competitive edge – if managed well, efficient tax planning leads to lower operational costs for the business. This gives you a competitive edge when it comes to pricing, innovation, sales and revenue generation. How can our firm help you with tax planning? Getting strategic with your tax planning has many advantages for your financial stability as a business. But to maximise your planning, it’s important to work with an experienced adviser. As your tax adviser, we’ll help you look ahead across the whole financial year, looking for the opportunities to reduce your tax liability and find the best tax deductions and incentives. If you’d like to know more about the impact of tax planning, we’ll be happy to explain. Get in touch to talk about tax planning.